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100 agents stratified by information access, trading horizon, motivation, and analytical sophistication. Each stratum receives a different intelligence briefing from the Electro Fish pipeline.
| Stratum | N | Model | Information diet | Sophistication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noise | 20 | haiku | Reddit, Polymarket price only | Heuristic / overconfident |
| Retail | 30 | haiku | News headlines, Reddit, Polymarket | Heuristic / some Bayesian |
| Semi-pro | 30 | haiku + sonnet | All public sources + SEC filings | Bayesian |
| Institutional | 20 | sonnet | SEC filings + Fed releases only | Strict Bayesian, ignores sentiment |
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ORACLE synthetic prediction market — calibration study — cryptooracle.net — Backend: FastAPI + LMSR market maker — Intelligence: Electro Fish Pipeline —